Friday 17 September 2021

Birding Forecast

Pretty much got last week spot on with a good selection of American vagrants in Iceland and a few American waterbirds in Outer Hebrides. Also a good scattering of drift migrants for the rest of UK (e.g. there was Roseate Tern and Purple Heron in Oxon and Pec Sand in London and seemingly everywhere else too) and a few migrant moths. Unfortunately my second vaccination wiped me out the game for most of the week so missed out on mid-week birding. Getting better now so hopefully back in business. 

It looks like more of the same for next week with the westerly airflow and jet streams located at relatively high latitude and looks like Iceland (and maybe Outer Hebs and Northern Isles)  is best placed again.  An interesting feature affects Mid-Atlantic early next week which could scatter Nearctic birds into the mid-Atlantic and to the Azores (although far from a perfect storm for Azores but who knows) . However it doesn't look great for the rest of the UK with a light westerly airflow. That could be good for common migrant vis mig but no so great for drift migrants. However there are some days when the light wind is coming off the North Sea and there is an interesting easterly airflow conduit over Scandinavia that could be conveyor belting migrants from further east into north west Europe, so this could lead to drift migrants or even Sprites and vagrants.  

The night temperatures are around 11 and 12 so not too great for moths and the winds don't look too favourable either. 

So once again no really strong features to respond to within my limited capacity, so will stay local again unless something interesting to twitch.  It is September after all and no matter what the weather, the time of year is just as important and there are many factors apart from weather at play in bird migration and vagrancy (see my Birdwatch articles HERE  and HERE). So basically anything can happen and its always worth putting the hours in this time of year. 

Magic Seaweed chart for Monday. The westerly airflow is mainly moving towards Iceland and north east i.e. 'over the top'
That Easterly airflow system over Russia and affecting Scandinavia could bring the goods in from further afield. However there is not much of a wind (the determined ones will still make it though) to get them across the North Sea and into the UK but there could be some rather interesting activity in the Baltic and Scandinavia. 

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