Sunday 12 September 2021

Birding Forecast

 An interesting week ahead with three main themes

1) A deep area of low pressure (the remnants of a tropical storm that didn't make landfall but tracked north over western North Atlantic) south of Greenland heading towards Iceland over next day or two

2) A small depression forming over Newfoundland and heading into low pressure above and the formation of a westerly airflow that affects the Outer Hebrides/West Coast of UK by late in the week

3) The rest of the UK affected by high pressure and varying east to north winds with some rain over next two days and then mainly clear and cold nights

Forecast for next Saturday 18th September

So on that basis I predict

1) The possibility of nearctic vagrants in Iceland/ Western Scotland- early September could hold potential for a mega too (a Cape May Warbler was found on the Azores yesterday- although that was unrelated to any obvious weather- the weather doesn't actually look great for the Azores but always a good chance there if there is any storm activity in the North Atlantic ) 

2) Potential for sea watching in strong westerly airflow on west coast of UK (mainly to north)

3) Potential for slow drift migrants in UK due to light easterly airflow, probably best in rain and cloud (better over next two days)  

4) Low night temperatures will mean moth catches less but easterly conditions earlier this autumn produced migrants so could be some migrants 

Birding Plan

 Apart from heading to the Outer Hebrides/ Northern Isles (which I can't), not too many strong indicators to do anything in particular apart from monitor the situation, stay local and look for drift migrants. No harm in keeping the moth trap going despite the low night temperatures (the catch last night was 50% of what it has been recently) 

No comments: