Birding Forecast - which way to turn?

This is the first free week for me this autumn so my first chance to react to these forecasts. Unfortunately it's too late for me to get to where I should be this week which is Corvo with hurricane Sam shaping up into something which is bringing westerlies towards the Azores (not what they were forecasting a few days ago or else I would have been on the plane now!) This highlights the perils of trying to twitch weather forecasts abroad. It was all a bit too tight against my work and family commitments too (Holly is eight months pregnant so I am pushing my luck to the limit this autumn- its always good when marriages/relationship last October! :-) ) which I can only get out of by Wednesday.  

I did okay on my bets for last week HERE with the mid-week system bringing Solitary Sand, Red-eyed Vireo, Rose-breasted Grosbeak and Semipalmated Plover to Ireland but who could have predicted White's Thrush and Baikal Teal on Fair Isle! Anything can happen. I was spot on with the prediction for the Azores too with a very quiet week apart from with one (rather enormous) exception- the first visiting birders found a Warbling Vireo (a first for the WP) and Chestnut-sided Warbler on their first day. So when I say spot on others would say couldn't have got it more wrong- depends on how you spin it :-). I can only explain that with long staying birds that had been around since mid-month and the first time these valleys had been checked since then, we have a strong precedent of long staying birds. Week round up on Corvo HERE. 

So my first choice this week would be get to Corvo! Hurricane Sam does not actually make landfall on the eastern seaboard of the US but we know from past experience on Corvo that the key is any airflow from the west that connects with the US. In fact fast moving depressions and hurricanes are not as significant for the Azores as north west Europe or Iceland (see pages 12 and 14 HERE). So looks like I've blown this- I really do need to retire completely for the autumn as this keeps happening as the opening move is buggered due to work commitments right at the start line.  If I leave Wednesday I won't get there till Friday by which time it will all be over and the forecast after that looks like back to easterlies. Will see what happens- might be worth getting there for the mop up. 

 However all may not be lost back here as a low pressure over the UK simultaneous to the hurricane Sam (in fact maybe a result of energy being pulled in by the major Atlantic disturbance) is forming mid-week bringing in what looks like good drift migrant and sibe conditions to the east coast of the UK.  If there is nothing too mega on the Azores , I'll head to the east coast hopefully on Wednesday once I've wrapped up work and done the handover for the month. 

Forecast for mid-week (5th October). Its coming out of both ends here! A westerly towards the Azores and a low pressure and easterlies over the UK (from Norfolk northwards).