Sunday, 24 September 2017

Birding Forecast week beginning 24th September

 High pressure over Eurasia with an easterly conveyor belt all the way to the east coast and Northern Isles. Eastern vagrants more or less guaranteed. 
Magic Seaweed Forecast Friday 29th September.  Hurricane moving up the eastern US coast connecting to a series of systems that creates a westerly conveyor belt to Britain. American vagrants being pushed out in to Atlantic more or less guaranteed. 

Local/ Beddington/London:
Light south east winds and an easterly always welcome this time of year. A lot depends on cloud cover - if local fronts form over north sea region could produce drift and falls. On clearer days raptors could be on the move. Still in the rare wader window too. Late autumn migrants (thrushes etc) could well start coming in.

Britain and Ireland
Migrant falls: If local fronts and cloud develop over north sea could produce some drift and fall conditions on the east coast.
Eastern vagrants: Megas are more or less guaranteed from the beginning of the week onwards. 
American vagrants:  By the end of the week conditions are very good. 
Seabirds: By the end of the week action could resume in the North West. 

Western Palearctic
Eastern Vagrants:  More or less guaranteed.
American Vagrants:  More or less guaranteed- Azores obvious choice but also system affecting further north. 
Migration: That huge high pressure over the continent will be pushing any movement from the east along nicely. 

Rarity Finding Strategy:
Local: Promising conditions at a peak time of year. Work the patches and keep an eye on Staines. 
UK: Northern Isles almost certain to perform for eastern vagrants, also looking promising for north east coast. Late on in the week looking good for a yank on Hebs etc. 
WP: Late September, a good yank vagrant weather pattern so has to be Corvo. Late September a good eastern vagrant weather pattern has to be the Northern Isles of Britain and vagrant traps in Northern Europe. 

In the future planning on doing a rarity finding big autumn (practising with these forecasts). This week the strategy would be to spend the week in Northern Isles and then transfer to Corvo for weekend. 

Notes on last weeks forecast.HERE
Siberian Thrush, Yellow-breasted Bunting and Pallas's Groppers  etc in Britain (so got that okay)
The Azores performed by the end of the week contrary to expectations. See weather map below that shows a different situation to the forecast with a westerly airflow affecting the Azores region.

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