Sunday, 5 September 2010
Birding Forecast Update
Brown Flycatcher (today) in East Yorkshire and Great Snipe (yesterday) at Spurn confirms my forecast from two days ago. Also a scattering of scarce migrants like Barred Warbler, Wrynecks, Red-Backed Shrike, Ortolans. However I missed the extent of this influx- with eastern scarce migrants occurring in the south and west too. Also Eastern Olivaceous and Sykes Warbler on near continent.
Anyway, the weather for the next few days looks very interesting indeed (See forecast for Tuesday 07/09/10 above). That extensive high over Eurasia with a massive corridor of easterlies means there is a window for 'experimental migrants' heading this way. Those strengthening south-easterlies over the North Sea should concentrate birds on the Northern Isles and the North East coast. I guess the southerly element coming up from Iberia could bring Southern scarce migrants too so we could have double bubble- random oriented migrants heading up from the south and east. Those fronts should interact with the migrants in complex ways- perhaps funnelling birds around them and causing falls in localised areas. Also the strength of the winds could mean seabirds on the east coast too with perhaps some penetrating in land.
Prediction: Eastern vagrants and scarce migrants on Northeast Coast and Northern Isles. Scarce migrants in south and south west. Seabirds off East and South coasts (maybe inland sightings too). Overshoot vagrants and migrants also reaching west coast hot spots. As for Beddington- perhaps one of our best chances for a scarce migrant like a Wryneck, Ortolan etc but would settle for a Black Tern or Pied Flycathcer.