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I'm a fan of Deiter Helm (Net Zero and Natural Capital pioneer) and as usual while travelling to London was listening to his podcast this morning. Interesting to hear some of his predictions for the next four or five years on the podcast '2030' (embedded above) which include amongst other things like China taking Taiwan, the potential over-hyping of AI, the Net Zero and 2030 projects failing etc, also his predictions include a high risk of the next huge financial correction before 2030 and the necessity for a new pathway following the crash.
Bubble territory is the term I keep reading in the financial media. I know nobody knows, Helm also agrees he is not certain, but the thing about our unsustainable system is that it literally cannot be sustained and it's just a question of the nature of the time line of how that collapse occurs.
Personally I'm with Helm on this (or rather I trust his expert opinion)- I'll be very surprised if we are not extremely close to the bubble bursting (within a five year time frame). There are a lot of indicators suggesting iminent (in deeper time terms) collapse including blow-off top financial markets, extreme volatility in commodities, escalating global conflict, what Mark Carney described recently at Davos as the emergence of a 'post rule based world order', the consolidation of fortress superpowers like China, Russia and the USA, Clown/apocolyptic leaders (Trump etc), unprecedented corruption scandals (Epstein, Mandleson etc), widening inequality, huge debt to GDP ratios and escalating ecological and climate chaos.
Anyway better to listen to Dieter Helm rather than my penny's worth. For those who don't know Helm, he is Professor of Economic Policy at Oxford, author of the book Net Zero and former chair of the Natural Capital Committee advising the UK government (and was the next door neighbour of our friend Barry when we were in Oxfordshire).
What that post-collapse new system might look like is something we've been experimenting with at Little Oak Group for years, a parallel structure which tests out some post-GDP paradigm models. I studied this stuff 30 years ago at University and only now is it becoming more and more relevant. Our main experiment has been with a triple bottom line enterprise model that measures growth and value in Social, Ecological and Economic metrics. The idea is to position ourselves to ride any waves that may or may not come our way (I know very well we are just as likely to get swept away by the tsunami as anyone else) following the consequences of unsustainability. Thee Bryans is our campaigning arm of what we do so considering we seem to be moving increasingly into Bubble terriority we've been spending more time in recent weeks updating the website and material etc. More to come on this. New website pic above and old track below.
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