Thursday, 17 April 2014

Easter Local Birding Forecast

Tomorrow: Light north winds, high pressure. Presumably clear skies with little or high cloud.
Birds: Raptors moving from late morning to mid afternoon, altitude of migration will be high if clear conditions prevail. Further arrival of summer breeders eg. more Whitethroats, Sedge, Reed Warbler etc.

Saturday: Light easterlies with some chance of cloud cover.
Birds: East winds could encourage tern and wader movements to track this direction but cloud cover need to bring them down to visible height. The odd one might drop in. If cloud is present good chance of a tern or wader or other drift migrants.
Sunday: East winds with frontal rain.
Birds: YES! If this forecast is correct than waders, terns and grounded migrants are more or less guaranteed. Will require the winds to be moderate easterly with low cloud and steady rain preferably with broken spells and not too persistent or heavy. 

1 comment:

Peter Alfrey said...

1 Whimbrel, 1 Redshank, 1 LRP, 1 Snipe, 10 Swallow, 5 Sand Martin, 1 House Martin

4 Shelduck, 1 Little Ringed Plover, 2 Green Sandpiper, 5 Little Grebe, 1 Common Buzzard, 4 Linnet, 1 Wheatear (f), 1 Reed Warbler, 20 Swallow, 15 Sand Martin, 1 House Martin, 1 Yellow Wagtail

3 Shelduck, 10 Gadwall, 9 Teal, 14 Tufted Duck, 7 Common Buzzard, 2 Red Kite, 1 Sparrowhawk, 3 Kestrel, 1 Peregrine Falcon, 1 Green Sandpiper, 1 Common Tern, 1 Skylark, 2 Meadow Pipit, 1 Wheatear (f), 10 Swallow, 15 Sand Martin, 2 Pied Wagtail, 3 Grey Wagtail, 1 Yellow Wagtail, 7 Blackcap, 7 Whitethroat, 5 Chiffchaff, 5 Linnet, 1 Reed Bunting

This is what was actually recorded at Beddington on those dates (above)

Forecast accuracy: Yes raptors on 18th and yes a Whimbrel on 20th and more waders across London but generally the 20th system produced a weak and disappointing flight- probably due to the low air temperature. A better developed flight on 22nd (12 Whimbrel, 3 Dunlin, 2 Grey Plover, hirundines) with frontal conditions and south west winds with warmer air temperatures.