Sunday, 19 March 2017

Birding Forecast

Looks like this brisk westerly (and sometimes wet) airflow continues until Wednesday so migrants are going to struggle making it through that. There's a bit of a window on Wednesday with a southerly airflow on a low pressure and relatively warm air , however according to the long range forecast on Magic Seawood (link below) a northerly and high pressure takes over from Thursday swinging round to an easterly cooler airflow by Friday/next weekend. 

Basically Monday and Tuesday doesn't look too clever, Wednesday could present some better chances for migrants and Thursday onwards could be interesting as the easterly develops. 

Raptors: A light northerly (headwind) and developing high pressure towards end of week looks best.
Passerine/landbird migrants: Wednesday looks best. Wheatears and other early passerines, Chiffs, first Willow Warbler, more Sand Martins, first Swallow, odd Ring Ouzel, etc.
Waders: Can push through in the westerly, more likely in frontal conditions before end of week. LRPS arriving, possibly odd Dunlin, Ringed Plover and Curlew.
Waterfowl: Maybe Garganey anytime.
Gulls: Can push through in anything- good time for rare gulls.
Seabirds: Maybe Kittiwake in the westerly early week.

Wednesday looking most interesting 

Long range forecast: MAGIC SEAWEED

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