I'm finally free to start my autumn birding and it's a tough board to be playing on. There is an area of low pressure in the Atlantic but it is drawing in air from Newfoundland and North Canada. Any westerly airflow in the Atlantic could be good for Corvo but any birds displaced will presumably be more northerly distributed species which have mainly moved south by now. Mid latitude westerlies or eastern seaboard disturbances are best for Corvo and they are nowhere to be seen this autumn so far. Furthermore the Atlantic turns into a mill pond after that low passes. On that basis I'm holding off going to Corvo (they've had Black-billed Cuckoo, Upland Sand and REV this week on the back of some west winds and hopefully that will keep ticking over but it could well be tough going).
Calm conditions predominate over the UK which extend across Europe, a mid continent easterly airflow which is quite unusual.
So overall basically it is a weak and rather featureless outlook a situation where the lack of barriers to migration is probably the strongest feature for vagrancy. Problem with that is something good on it's way here from the east and across mid Europe could turn up anywhere- although usually in vagrant traps such as remote islands. It was conditions like this in 1999 that produced megas like Short-toed Eagle, Siberian Thrush and Blue Rock Thrush on Scilly- all in calm clear blue skies- presumably birds just drifting around from all directions.
On that basis I think I'll head to Scilly (if I can find accommodation at short notice). If I cant get to Scilly on short notice I'll head to Portland or Kent (as the easterlies are quite southern based).
No comments:
Post a Comment