Interesting weather for coming week

 It's not every week the weather is as interesting as the forecast for the coming week. Sounds like we could either have disruptive conditions from the North or from the South as two big systems, an Arctic blast and a major  Atlantic low pressure go head to head in a clash of the titans. Doesn't look like a classic situation that could trigger cold escape movements but because of the complexity and uncertainty it's worth keeping an eye on. 

Want to know what the weather has in store for us this weekend? Here's Alex with all the details 👇 pic.twitter.com/GhNWMVntgC

— Met Office (@metoffice) January 11, 2024

For what it's worth

Sorry for the off-topic post but I can't stay focused when I can see that everything is connected. For what ever my tiny opinion is worth I do think that the fate of the natural world will be decided by a system of global governance that humanity co-evolves into. Maybe it's not very convincing to say that nature conservation is linked to the Israel-Gaza war but what that crisis highlights is that there is no international police force or army that the people of Gaza can call to help them. Global society is basically an anarchy and that anarchy leads to a race to the bottom, an economic and technological arms race of superpowers and lesser powers fighting for dominance. There are no governing structures that maintains an order (particularly in the control of murder)  in the same way a state entity does and the closest thing we have to a world government is the UN which is overall a toothless, target setting talking shop and gravy train. 

Only necessity i.e. global breakdown and chaos can create the necessary conditions for a post-Capitalist system that distributes wealth and power in a more equitable fashion and also protects nature which is the foundation to our species survival.

Maybe the situation in Israel will facilitate that global breakdown. At the moment there seems to be a growing outrage at the shameless massacre of children that the IDF are perpetrating.  If the far right Zionist Israeli government have pushed things too far which makes it impossible for their allies to keep defending their military strategy that involves child massacre, they could open a fault line between the century old US-Israel-Europe alliance and we could start to see traditional geopolitical superstructures disintegrating. For what it's worth I don't think what Israel is doing is overall morally defendable but I also think that Hamas and the Arabs would do the same or worse to Israel if only they could so I'm certainly not taking sides- just noting that chaos reigns when there is no global government that can split these two fighting factions apart.  If the Ukraine situation escalates too we really could be on the brink of global meltdown in 2024. Certainly worth taking some precautions and insurances.  

There will be nothing pleasant for anyone in a global breakdown and it is certainly nothing to celebrate but after a necessary horrifying and painful period of history the world could end up in the place it needs to get to for planetary ecosystems, the climate and humanity to stabilise. Seems like there is no other way but the most difficult way.   

    

A few year ticks

Visited the troubled Beddington Farmlands yesterday, good to meet up with Zach and Co and also did a bit more exploring around Cuttlebrook too, back here in Oxfordshire from the new rental. Not much to sing and dance about- haven't bumped into any Waxwings yet during this irruption and can't bring myself to twitch them as takes the fun out of the possibility of finding some (I've found them in the past on several occasions while out working). There was a small flock in Thame a few days ago so got a relatively good chance if I can find the time to get out. 

Ebird list from the farmlands HERE. Highlights included a Dunlin, Firecrest and nice to see 30+ Lapwings still holding in there.

There's a possibility of a big freeze next week so will keep an eye on things as could be worth taking some time off work if it gets intense enough. 

Luckily I've managed to kill off the low level despair of UK inland local birding by booking some trips this year including a winter trip to Madeira in a few weeks, back to the Bulgaria project, a trip to Az and top of the bill a family trip to Australia in the summer. Will need to buy more land and push on fast with our net gain restoration works to balance the carbon accounts for this year. We've got quite a few wildlife gardening jobs booked in for this winter at Little Oak too which all helps. Now we are out of the Old Vic and into a small energy efficient home that helps too and also doubled down on buying shares in natural capital stocks (despite the risk of them falling further). We've also reignited the Beddington Farmlands campaign ahead of the planning re-application this year which is one of the biggest gains we can contribute too. An interesting update on the State of UK Nature markets HERE which basically concludes there is still not enough convergence to allow any organisation to accurately deal with net zero and net gain objectives which doesn't help the Green transition at any scale. However these new systems are slowly evolving further. 

Thanks the gods we no longer have a dog (Izzy went with Holly's brother after we moved out, she will be missed in other ways) and I can bait the garden for Red Kites. Still building up their confidence so hopefully better photos to follow. 

The Beddington Firecrest- still a scarce bird there and this particular one wasn't that easy to photograph

Common Snipe at Beddington

Common Nuthatch in Beddington Park- year tick 

Northern Herring Gull at Beddington - certainly miss the huge gulls numbers that used to feature during the winter at Beddington

More local floods in Oxfordshire- this one near the Esso garage in Thame. Didn't have too much different along this stretch of the Thame flood plain. Ebird list HERE. Highlights were are few waterfowl, good numbers of winter thrushes and the first Common Buzzards I've seen on the new local patch (which is scattered across various ebird hotspots and locations so a bit of a mess). 

Beddington Farmlands News Articles

 A couple of articles outlining the concerns over the recent consultation process at Beddington Farmlands Local Guardian HERE, My London HERE.  Update 290124- Birdguides article HERE

Local floods

Must be difficult round here to model the local flooding and the impact that all the local housing development is having but Jacob's school was shut yesterday for the first time ever during the current headmasters leadership and the school village and some houses were also unprecedently flooded which has all happened within a few months of two new developments of several hundred houses going up in the village. Un-ravelling hydrology, rainfall levels and changes in runoff and retention must be complex enough so that developers don't worry too much about being sued. I've seen on the news that in some parts of the country some houses have been flooded five times in the last five years in five separate formerly 50 year events- a cataclysmic change that must basically turn any property investment to zero value. That's such a tragedy when you consider it could well be these awful overpriced soulless ticky-tacky red brick green field site developments (like the one we are renting on at the moment) which are deflecting flood water to beautiful rustic cottages and houses in the traditional and cultural parts of rural society. It all certainly focuses the mind on putting climate resilience, flood risk and risk of adjacent building development in top of our criteria to check before we move.  

Did a bit of flood birding, had Kingfisher in a field at the bottom of the estate and a Shelduck over the Ickford Bridges, also a couple of Teal there but no sign yet of the flocks of Wigeon and smaller numbers of Shoveler and Pintail that I've seen during floods on the Thame flood plain in the past. I've also previously picked up Med Gull, White-fronted Goose, Redshanks and Curlews so will keep an eye on things when I get a chance.

The garden year moth list is on two- Winter moth and Pale Brindled Beauty. 

The path heading north along Cuttlebrook was flooded so I couldn't check out the area where I had the Otter and Great Egret. Got Great-spot on the local list and also the Kingfisher was nearby. Also Chiffchaff and a couple of Stonechats (the Stonechats were in the reed mace lagoon on the estate). I'm on 53 species now for Cuttlebrook. 

Jacob enjoying the mega puddles at Cuttlebrook Nature Reserve (above and below) 

Cuttlebrook Nature Reserve

Jacob not enjoying getting out of his depth 

Ickford Bridges (above and below) 

Most roads in the flood plain around Ickford and Shabbington 

Shelduck flying over Ickford Bridges- a scarce bird round here 

Beddington Farmlands Consultation

 The Valencia/Viridor/KKR consultation on their plans to amend the restoration programme at Beddington Farmlands ended today. Here are a few links to the consultation and responses from the Beddington Farmlands Bird Group, the Hackbridge and Beddington Corner Neighbourhood Development Group and the Wandle Valley Forum.

I did a phone interview with My London yesterday so hopefully there will be a news article on this soon too.  A pre-consultation news article on this from Inside Croydon HERE. 

 

The futue of Beddington Farmlands - why we think Valencia Waste Management's new plans for the nature reserve and public access fall shorthttps://t.co/uFKJPAoAGd pic.twitter.com/ufaWAjeS8b

— Wandle Valley Forum (@WandleForum) January 4, 2024

Happy? New Year

Seems like an increasing miracle every new year that begins against the backdrop of escalating global chaos. My social media feed nowadays contains news from WP birding friends at war in Israel, birding friends struggling in the shadow of the Ukraine situation in Bulgaria, the usual global and climate emergency stuff, planning system meltdown at Beddington and the expectation of financial system collapse, the threat of AI, environmental authoritarianism, social credit and digital currency totalitarianism or the next pandemic. 

Trying to make personal and small enterprise decisions in an unstable global context is a bit of a lottery but the key principles of personal resilience, risk exposure limitation and a diverse and flexible strategy seems to make sense in order to generate better odds.

Our main aim of 2024 is to move into our new family homestead and set up the garden food growing again before the global economy collapses which is all a bit worrying as it might happen tomorrow or in months/years time. In my opinion after the bailouts of the 2008 global financial collapse and the resulting QE and business as usual approach, a new bigger and more devastating financial bubble was inevitable. That bubble has now got a name - the Everything Bubble HERE and when that bubble bursts the world will presumably enter some kind of post-fundamental Capitalist epoch- new AI-powered digital currencies, multi-indices, social credits, carbon credits, natural capital etc. The bubble could deflate slowly or suddenly and the impacts are anyone's guess - new opportunities will appear and old ones will disappear.   

So hopefully before anything too dramatic happens we can get to safe ground and have a bit of land to live off and focus on wider efforts from a safe position.  We also will have a chance to improve the EPC rating of the property and build in some energy self sufficiency to try and get things as cost effective as possible. We hope to move into an area where nature reserves, beaches and other natural resources are within walking distance so if we do experience lockdowns and movement limitations (due to becoming broke!) there could be worst places to be.

If I was still living in an urban or communal setting I would do what I did back then too and do community food growing and local community building around nature and natural resilience. The thing about this stuff is global collapse or not, it still increases personal well being and adds value so you can't lose.  

So the most powerful personal resilience (next to being global elite, engineering the collapse and gorging off the death and destruction that follows) in the face of so many uncertainties is connecting to nature and mainly living off the sustenance that watching birds and wildlife and cultivating nature brings detached somewhat from human systems and costs. While it might seem not a great thing if the global financial system collapses it's almost inevitable that some stress will be taken off  nature as a result and new opportunities will emerge for more people to reconnect to nature. Leaning on nature when the consequences of our collective short-term wiring back fires is one of our best hopes for a happy new year .