This is the end?

There was a northeast wind this morning and migration at the Bill was reduced to a trickle HERE although a couple of Arctic Skuas and a few migrating Kittiwakes were nice to see. The forecast is for a northerly and northwesterly airflow to dominate over the next week with rain and some stormy conditions so it does indeed appear that the main Spring passage has come to an end. 

A clear sign that migration was slowing was how much sea watch conversations turned to politics. Even within our small birding group, opinions varied widely, reflecting a divided country. Gains in this week's local elections by the Greens and Reform mirror the wider rise of populism, driven largely by inequality and growing marginalisation. Populism feels less like a solution than a symptom of a system approaching major change, potentially involving AI-enhanced democratic models.

At the same time, markets are behaving erratically: AI speculation is inflating asset values while bonds, commodities, conflict and inflation are sending mixed signals. The Portland birding blog was talking about ecological breakdown yesterday being responsible for low migrants numbers year on year-another indicator signalling an alarm.  It feels like instability is building ahead of deeper economic and political reform. 

The key challenge now is anticipating what that reform might look like and preparing for its effects. I had to agree with Justin that growth that just leads to more house building and nature destruction must come to end, Ian maintains that we have to have growth of some kind, Sam told everyone to shut up and Andrew oftens asks what other system is there other than unsustainable growth?  Who knows?  A post-GDP system could include biodiversity and carbon metrics alongside economic measures, with AI helping set sustainable targets and incentives. That may create opportunities in areas like land and nature conservation, while also making personal resilience and self-sufficiency increasingly important as inequality grows. It does indeed appear we are heading towads some kind of tech-feudalism, although IMO a cure to affluenza/mass consumerism and a return to nature/ the wild is a good thing. 

Traditional party politics appears increasingly largely reactive. Major societal shifts — the internet, big data, AI, natural capital markets and cryptocurrency — were driven by technology, not governments struggling to keep pace. Democratic influence is increasingly moving into digital systems and networks rather than political parties alone, and future decision-making may evolve in that direction too. For now, party politics remains the dominant system, though one that feels increasingly strained and possibly just like Spring migration is also near the end?

Btw this post was also written/edited by AI.  

Eight Little Egrets on Ferry this morning was an increase but Shelducks have decreased to only 7 birds and today was the first day of no Shoveler. A Common Sandpiper was still present, also the LRP , 60 odd Blackwits and a further increase to about 30 Avocet. See below for Ebird graph of Avocets in the harbour this year showing the wintering population departing and then increasing numbers as summering birds arrive in recent days- unfortunately the zero data points are when I was away as not enough people use a single hotspot and instead Pagham Harbour Ebird has lots of hotspots that disperses data which makes it easier for traditional report writing but basically an entire report could be written automatically if a single Ebird spot is used. These birding computer systems have still got some way to go before they combine the important detail captured in traditional bird reports/ BTO surveys etc with the new technology but many in the new generation of birders don't even know what a bird report is and only know social media and apps so it's all heading in the way of automation. For the full '2026 Pagham Harbour live bird report' see HERE and HERE - could be so much better if everyone uploaded data and photos on one hotspot .  

 

Avocets in Pagham Harbour 2026 (zero points are unrecorded weeks)

Kittiwakes moving past the Bill- a species that heralds the end of Spring. 

There has been something slivering in our wild ditch so Jacob and I put down some reptile survey matts this morning to try and find out what it is. Also had Hobby over the garden today and Cuckoo singing. Also still Blackcap, Whitethroat and Chiffchaff singing. 

Even the moth trap was pretty dull last night with no NFYs and I can't imagine much happening in the predicted northerly airflow. It has been a good Spring for migrant Small Mottled Willows (above) with another last night with a Rusty-dot and a few Turnips being the only migrant interest. I do think the next week is going to be a struggle to get through! A good time to catch up with project work.